There are many "macro" trends that people like to talk about that can be useful for putting a name to uncontrollable forces we feel are in charge of shaping the future. People like to talk about "demographics" as a macrotrend or "migration" as a macrotrend, but these are societal forces of change that are known to have influenced human societies for a long, long time.
So at Canary, we like to stick to the tried and true method of classifying these forces of change through an expansion of the STEEP/PESTLE model of analysis and use that as a means to explore more specific trends under each of these forces that are more immediately applicable and actionable to our day-to-day than talking about overly broad macrotrends.
Let's dive into the framework we use, and how we classify each of these forces and how they apply to the future.
From PESTLE to STEEPLECOP
In Introduction to Foresight, Smart, Fant, et al, make the case for thinking beyond STEEP and PESTLE toward a new framework for scanning the different systems that drive change. They propose STEEPLECOP, and that's what we're working to adopt for our scanning operations internally and for clients here at Canary.
STEEP and PESTLE cover Socal, Technological, Economic, Environmental, and Political (STEEP) and Political, Economic, Social, Technology, LEGAL, and Environmental (PESTLE) systems of change. For STEEPLECOP, we not only broaden the categories we're exploring, but also apply a framework to the ordering of categories:
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Science
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Technology
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Economics
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Environments
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Politics
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Law
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Ethics
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Culture
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Organizations
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People
Applying STEEPLECOP to Strategic Foresight
Why an Expanded Framework?
Traditional models like PESTLE and STEEP provide a solid foundation but may overlook nuanced factors that are increasingly relevant in today's complex world. By expanding to STEEPLECOP, we capture additional dimensions:
- Ethics and Culture: Reflecting the growing importance of corporate responsibility and cultural sensitivity.
- Organizations and People: Recognizing internal dynamics and human elements as drivers of change, not just external factors.
Enhanced Analysis
Using STEEPLECOP allows for a more granular analysis of trends and forces. For instance:
- Science vs. Technology: Separating these categories acknowledges that not all scientific advancements immediately translate into technology, and vice versa.
- Law and Politics: Distinguishing between legal systems and political environments helps in understanding different layers of regulatory impact.
Actionable Insights
By categorizing trends under specific STEEPLECOP components, organizations can develop targeted strategies:
- Technology Strategy: Anticipate technological disruptions and invest in relevant R&D.
- Cultural Adaptation: Modify products or services to align with cultural trends in different markets.
- Ethical Compliance: Implement policies that meet ethical expectations, enhancing brand trust.
Conclusion
In an era of rapid change and increasing complexity, relying on overly broad macro trends is insufficient for effective strategic foresight. By adopting the STEEPLECOP framework, organizations like Canary can dissect and understand the multifaceted forces shaping the future. This approach not only enhances the depth of analysis but also yields actionable insights that inform strategic planning and decision-making.
The expanded categories in STEEPLECOP recognize that forces of change are interconnected and that factors like ethics, culture, and people play critical roles alongside traditional considerations like economics and technology. By systematically exploring each component, organizations can better prepare for uncertainties, mitigate risks, and seize opportunities.
